It’s back. The 2024 Randox Health Grand National is right around the corner as the horse racing world gathers to Aintree’s prestigious race course for one of the biggest events on the sporting calendar. For almost 200 years the race has captivated audiences with a true test of skill, determination and a little bit of luck thrown into the mix.
To win the national is perhaps the greatest achievement for any trainer or jockey – writing your name into the history books and winning on the grandest stage of them all.
Last year’s race was threatened to be overshadowed by protestors, but even the delayed restart couldn’t prevent the inevitable, as Derek Fox became a two-time winning jockey with the dominant Corach Rambler, who lived up to the billing as 8/1 favourite to cruise to victory, with the gelding winning by two-and-a-quarter lengths.
As punters flock to the Merseyside course there are plenty of factors to consider ahead of this year’s Grand National. Market movers are common in the build up to the race and it’s important to assess the current trends, especially with so much action since the end of the Cheltenham Festival last month.
With so many variables to consider, let’s take a look at the key trends to assess ahead of the 2024 Randox Health Grand National.
The Favourites
As always, it’s important to examine the most-backed horses. Corach Rambler leads the charge as a 5/1 favourite, but those looking to stray away from the popular pick could consider one of the Willie-Mullins troop, as the experienced Irish trainer brings nine horses to Merseyside, with I Am Maximus leading the charge for the Closutton team at 8/1. Vanillier is third fancied at 10/1, with Gavin Cromwell overseeing a great run at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3 Chase over similar distance.
New Boys on the Block
In the lead up to the national there have been a number of market movers whose good performances have warranted their odds changing. These horses could really shake up the race and could well be worth a punt with promotional Grand National offers in the hopes of backing an outside shot.
Nassalam is a great example of a market mover after his solid performance in the Welsh Grand National, with his odds slashed from 40/1 now to 25/1. Threeunderthrufive is also back from injury for Paul Nichols and could be worth a punt despite not racing since victory at Ascot in the Swinley Handicap Chase.
The Conditions
The April weather always makes it difficult to predict how the conditions will turn out on the day at Aintree. Fortunately the festival’s other races give a good indication and Ladies Day will really decide if it is worth backing a horse that is less rated but better suited to the surface. In antepost betting punters are backing horses that love the mud, with
Meetingofthewaters, another part of the Mullins contingent, putting on a good show at Leopardstown and then coming third at Cheltenham in the Ultima Handicap chase.
Brian O’Keeffe, spokesperson for BoyleSports, said: “With the weather forecast looking unsettled across Liverpool for the next week, some punters are looking to get ahead of the field and snap up big prices about the horses that relish testing conditions.”
The actual course itself is such a difficult one to navigate. With so many tough fences to jump including the infamous Chair and Becher’s Brook, which actually had to be modified in the 90’s due to how many horses were being pulled up, it’s always interesting to see who really has the will to win and who can make it all the way to the Canal Turn on route to victory.
Any Chance of an Upset?
The best part about the Grand National is it’s sheer unpredictability. Over the years we have seen many outsiders claim the top prizes and it’s always nice to see a long shot reign supreme. Every Grand National also comes with some sentimental favourites—the horses with compelling backstories or loyal fan followings that have won money for punters in their prime years and now reach their crescendo, or even the trend of backing a grey horse, which has notoriously had only three winners.
These narratives add emotional depth to the race, and there are always a few horses that captivate the crowd, with Roi Mage, trained by 81-year-old Patrick Griffin, the pick of the bunch in the 2024 race. Alongside his son James, the duo finished seventh last year and are looking at entertaining the crowd once again.
“Last year he ran a cracker,” he said. “There were no complaints other than finishing six places closer. He jumped, travelled, and gave everybody a thrill.
“We’ve lived off the back of it for the past year and now we are back for another go.“
Conclusion
Overall, the race is shaping up to be a one-sided affair, but as the history books have shown it is so hard to retain the title as Grand National winner regardless of what the odds command. The form guide could essentially be tossed out of the window once that first fence is cleared and it will be really exciting to see the action unfold on April 13.