Trials Day at Longchamp rarely fails to impact the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting market, as the Paris track hosts the Prix Foy, the Prix Vermeille, and the Prix Niel. With all three contests taking place over the Arc course and distance, connections of the leading challengers regularly see Trials Day as the ideal stepping stone towards the most prestigious mile-and-a-half contest of the season.
So, what did we learn from the 2024 trials? Here, we look at the winners and losers from Sunday’s card and the Arc record of the recent winners of the Prix Foy, the Prix Vermeille, and the Prix Niel.
Qatar Prix Foy
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | Iresine | J-P Gauvin | 2/1 |
| Second | Zarir | F-H Graffard | 15/2 |
| Third | Continuous | A P O’Brien | 9/10 |
- Winner’s finishing position in the Arc (2014-2023) – 9-NR-13-6-4-1-NR-14-NR-12- NR
- Number of winners to win the Arc in the same year – 3
Barring the exploits of Waldgeist, who finished fourth in the 2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before mastering Enable to land the 2019 edition, the Prix Foy has been a relatively weak trial. Waldgeist aside, the other five winners who returned to the track in October finished outside the frame.
The record of the winner certainly won’t improve in 2024. Iresine (who won this race for a second time) is a gelding and, therefore, ineligible to line up in the Arc. The same is true of runner-up Zarir, which leaves the Aidan O’Brien-trained Continuous to advertise the Prix Foy form in the big one. The son of Heart’s Cry ran well to finish fifth in 2023, but no horse has been beaten in the Prix Foy and won the Arc in the past decade. Continuous can be backed at a general 50/1 for the big race on Sunday 6th October.
Qatar Prix Vermeille
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | Bluestocking | Ralph Beckett | 27/10 |
| Second | Aventure | C Ferland | 26/5 |
| Third | Emily Upjohn | John & Thady Gosden | 9/1 |
- Winner’s finishing position in the Arc (2014-2023) – NR-4-12-NR-NR-NR-NR-NR-NR-NR
- Number of winners to win the Arc in the same year – 6
Recent history doesn’t bode well for the winner of the fillies-only Prix Vermeille, with Treve’s fourth-place finish in 2015 the best effort of the winner in the past 10 years. However, only two horses have moved on from the Vermeille to the Arc over this period, with the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes a more popular target, and Treve finished fourth here before winning the 2014 Arc.
Where Bluestocking ends up this year largely depends upon the weather, with her trainer Ralph Beckett keen to avoid soft ground for his star filly. That said, she handled soft well enough here, when showing an admirable attitude to see off the highly regarded Aventure. Now a dual Group 1 winner, following so many near misses in 2023, connections may struggle to resist a shot of glory, having saddled Westover to finish second to Ace Impact in 2023. Bluestocking has shortened from 16/1 to a general 10/1 following this display.
Qatar Prix Niel
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | Sosie | A Fabre | 33/10 |
| Second | Delius | J-C Rouget | 67/10 |
| Third | Look De Vega | C & Y Lerner | 7/10 |
- Winners finishing position in the Arc (2014-2023) – 17-3-14-NR-NR-3-NR-8-NR-11
- Number of winners to win the Arc in the same year – 12
Traditionally the most informative of the Arc Trials, the Prix Neil is experiencing a dry spell, with Rail Link (2006) the most recent horse to complete the Niel/Arc double. Of the six who have tried since 2014, two hit the frame – New Bay (2015) and Sotsass (2019). Sottsass then went two spots better when seeing off In Swoop to win the 2020 edition.
The 2024 edition was supposed to represent the next step towards Arc glory for the Carlos & Yann Lener-trained Look De Vega. Previously unbeaten in three career starts, including the Prix du Jockey Club, the three-year-old started at odds of just 7/10 for this contest. Whilst connections insist he wasn’t in peak condition for his warm-up run, it was disappointing to see him finish a one-paced third behind Sosie, whom he had dispatched in the Prix du Jockey Club.
Look De Vega shouldn’t be written off just yet, but is out to a general 6/1 from 7/2. Sosie is the new favourite for the race at a best price of around 4/1 and goes for Andre Fabre, who tops the all-time trainer’s table in France’s greatest race.