We are just a few days away from the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, which is going to happen Saturday, May 3, 2025, at the historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” the Derby is the first leg of the American Triple Crown and attracts the top three-year-old thoroughbreds from across the world for a chance at greatness.
It could be one of the most exciting this year, considering a fierce, diverse competition. Each horse on the 2025 list has its own history, story, expectations, and promise of greatness, from American powerhouses to emerging international stars. Here, we take an in-depth look at the frontrunners, recent odds, and expert picks as we prepare for one of the most iconic events in horse racing.
Top Candidates and Odds
Journalism (3/1) — The Favourite
Journalism, an early favourite heading into the Kentucky Derby, heads the California trainer lot after his success in the San Felipe Stakes, trained by Michael McCarthy.
A son of Showcasing, Journalism brings tactical speed with his finishing kick and has proven to hold form on big-race days. Among the bookmakers for horse racing, he is currently listed at 3-1, reflecting strong betting interest. According to Cheeky Punter, a professional betting site’s reviewer, Journalism stands out not only for his performance but also for how consistently he draws punter support ahead of major races like Churchill Downs.
Sandman (8/1) – The King of Arkansas
One of the most discussed among contenders, Sandman just smashed the Arkansas Derby, a key Derby prep. Sandman has a great turn of foot and will be under the experienced training of Mark Casse. He is a legitimate contender at 8-1.
Sovereignty (8/1) – The Old-Pro
Coached by a team far less known but still on the rise, Sovereignty has quietly established itself as a well-balanced and competent unit. He has finished in the top three at every start of the season (with his odds steadily improving off consistently solid efforts against live competition).
Rodriguez (10/1) – The Baffert Factor
Despite the mess surrounding trainer Bob Baffert, Rodriguez has been turning heads with his natural flair and powerful late kicks. This colt brings the Baffert factor and the line that carries a lot of raw speed, too, at 10-1. Even though Baffert has recently returned to Churchill Downs under clouds, he has an unmatched Triple Crown resume.
Luxor Cafe (15/1) – The International
Luxor Café is a Japanese-bred colt turning heads heading to Derby Day. After a dominant win in the Fukuryu Stakes, the unbeaten colt is emblematic of growing Japanese strength on the world horse racing stage in two career starts. Luxor Cafe is a long shot at 15-1 but could upset the field if the pace favors him.
Other notable names to watch include; Burnham Square (15-1), Citizen Bull (20-1), and East Avenue (20-1)
The large field and early race speed will be essential, and anyone who can steer clear of the early head traffic and get a big, comfortable pocket by the half-mile will be sitting in a gold mine. The expected dry track also won’t hurt horses.
A Derby That Has It All
Upcoming in 2025, the Kentucky Derby is quickly becoming one of the most wide-open races in recent history. But this field is a strong one, and the international stars have also proven a threat to Journalism as they tend to lead the boards for the betting fraternity by right, of course, which means a well-deserved upset most likely will not happen this year, but it may be a charging out party.