Thus far, 2025 has been a little quiet for Paul Nicholls. Following a solid end to 2024, including big race wins for Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup, Nicholls slipped to a strike rate of just 8% in January, rising only marginally to 10% over the first half of February.
Whilst initially concerning, the yard regularly experiences a dip in performance following the battery of winter flu jabs. Nevertheless, January 2025 represented Nicholls’ worst start to a year since 1996 when measured by strike rate, and he is now without a Grade 1 win since the success of Pic D’orhy in the Ascot Chase almost 12 months ago.
The Right Time of Year to Rediscover His Form
All of which doesn’t inspire optimism in followers of the yard as we move into the key spring festivals. However, with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon, it may be unwise to write off a man who has claimed the British Trainers’ Championship on 14 occasions and has 49 Cheltenham Festival victories to his name.
If able to get his string fit and firing in the next few weeks, it would be no surprise to see the Ditcheat maestro claim a landmark 50th victory at the biggest meeting of the racing year. The 62-year-old may lack the established Grade 1 stars of the Kauto Star/Denman golden era, but the following five runners, in particular, look to have solid claims of landing their March targets.
Jubilee Alpha: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
- Nicholls’ Previous Wins in Race – None
Having crossed the Irish Sea in each of the first six editions, the home team have claimed this Day 3 prize in the three years since. Nicholls may add his name to the list of successful British trainers with this daughter of Flemensfirth. Following a promising Bumper campaign, Jubilee Alpha has won two of three outings over hurdles, including an impressive Listed success at Taunton in December.
Henri The Second: Pertemps Network Final
- Nicholls’ Previous Wins in Race – Monmiral (2024)
Nicholls registered his only win at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival in this event, thanks to the 25/1 shock success of Monmiral. Whilst not quite hitting the heights of Monmiral, Henry The Second boasts a comparable profile. Good enough to score in Grade 2 company in his debut season, he then appeared to lose his form in 2023. However, he bounced right back when landing a qualifier for this event by 18 lengths and Sandown and again performed with credit when second at that track in February.
No Drama This End: Champion Bumper
- Nicholls’ Previous Wins in Race – None
The Irish are invariably a tough nut to crack in the only obstacle-less contest of the meeting. However, there are a host of intriguing British runners amongst the current entries, including this exciting Walk In The Park gelding. A runaway winner in his sole Point to Point outing, he made an excellent impression when cruising home on his yard debut at Warwick in December. This beautifully bred sort will likely be seen to best effect over jumps, but could at least give Willie Mullins and co something to think about here.
Kabral Du Mathan: County Hurdle
- Nicholls’ Previous Wins in Race – Sporazene (2004), Desert Quest (2006), American Trilogy (2009), Lac Fontana (2014)
The County Hurdle has been pretty good to Nicholls over the years, although that 2014 success of Lac Fontana is beginning to feel like a long time ago. Perhaps Kapral Du Mathan could be the horse to end that losing sequence. Raced only three times in handicap company, he remains unexposed in this sphere and has hit the frame in all three outings this season. Likely to have this as his major target for the 2024/25 campaign, he seems sure to be a popular each-way option.
Shearer: Hunters’ Chase
- Nicholls’ Previous Wins in Race – Earthmover (2004), Sleeping Night (2005), Pacha Du Polder (2017, 2018)
Successful three times over hurdles, including a competitive handicap at Cheltenham in 2022, Shearer is proving to be a natural over the larger obstacles. Two from two over fences in 2023, he returned from a 601-day absence to claim a Ffos Las Hunter Chase in February by the small matter of 37 lengths. He needs to finish first or second in another Hunter Chase before the festival to qualify but has already been earmarked as the potential mount of Nicholls’ daughter, Olive.