The 2025 Cheltenham Festival, running from March 11-14, is a punter’s playground, and Ed Nicholson — Unibet’s market analyst — has his sights set on the hottest bets of the week. With an insider’s knowledge of market trends, punter behavior, and value picks, Nicholson is backing Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle), Shanagh Bob (Martin Pipe), and Home By The Lee (Stayers’ Hurdle) at 11/10, 8/1, and 6/1, respectively.
In the Racing Post’s Unibet-sponsored preview, alongside Tom Segal, Paul Kealy, David Jennings, and Nicky Henderson, Nicholson broke down the market movements, smart bets, and where the money is flowing.
Can his insider selections lead punters to Cheltenham gold, or will the numbers game unravel in the chaos of festival week?
Kopek Des Bordes: Tuesday’s Supreme Surge
Tuesday’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (13:20, March 11) sees Kopek Des Bordes headlining the market at 11/10, shortening from 5/4 as punter confidence builds.
“The money keeps coming—he’s Mullins’ big Supreme hope,” Nicholson noted.
“Leopardstown was a masterclass—he quickened away like a top-class novice.”
That five-length Christmas victory over 2 miles on soft ground demonstrated his speed and class, firmly establishing him as the one to beat in the festival opener.
“Punters are locking in 11/10 now,” Nicholson added. “Willie Mullins has dominated this race—six wins already, and this could be number seven.”
But is he a sure thing, or is there value elsewhere?
“If there’s any horse that could cause an upset, it might be Jeroboam Machin,” Segal suggested.
“He’s improving and will love the likely soft ground.”
Still, Nicholson isn’t budging:
“Everything is pointing to Kopek Des Bordes,” he insisted. Explore cheltenham betting — he’s one of the best-backed horses of the festival.”
Shanagh Bob: Friday’s Martin Pipe Sleeper Bet
Friday’s Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (17:30, March 14) is one of the most unpredictable races of the festival, but Nicholson believes Shanagh Bob is being overlooked at 8/1.
“He’s quietly gaining traction—Newbury was a serious performance,” Nicholson pointed out.
“He looked full of running when he won there last month.”
That three-length win over 2 miles on good-to-soft ground showed he has the perfect mix of speed and stamina for this highly competitive festival handicap.
“Nicky Henderson has played this smart,” Nicholson continued.
“This horse has been laid out for the Martin Pipe, and he’ll be primed for Friday.”
Market movements suggest some punters are hedging their bets, especially with Mullins’ runner, Ethical Diamond (10/1), also in the mix.
“There’s value in Shanagh Bob at 8/1,” Kealy countered.
“This race often throws up a surprise, and he’s got the right profile.”
“He’s my festival sleeper pick,” Nicholson maintained.
“If you’re looking for a value bet, this is it.”
Home By The Lee: Thursday’s Market Mover
The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (16:00, March 13) has been dominated by Teahupoo (evens) in the betting, but Nicholson sees value elsewhere.
“Home By The Lee is the real market mover,” he explained.
“He’s been backed from 8/1 to 6/1, and that tells me punters believe in him.”
A third-place finish in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle — six lengths behind Teahupoo — suggests he has a strong festival record, and his Leopardstown win over Bob Olinger at Christmas proved he’s still improving.
“Joseph O’Brien has got him spot on for this,” Nicholson continued.
“He’s a grinder — he’ll stay all day, and if the race gets tactical, he’ll be there at the finish.”
While Teahupoo remains the one to beat, Nicholson thinks the current odds make Home By The Lee a much more appealing bet.
“There’s too much weight of money behind him to ignore,” he concluded.
The Ground Factor: Will Conditions Favour Nicholson’s Picks?
The weather forecast could play a major role in how these selections perform:
- Kopek Des Bordes thrives on soft ground, making Tuesday’s likely conditions perfect
- Shanagh Bob is more versatile, but a drier surface on Friday would be ideal
- Home By The Lee needs stamina-sapping ground, and with rain in the forecast, he could be primed for a career-best run
“If the rain stays, Home By The Lee will be a major threat on Thursday,” Jennings noted.
For contrast, Lulamba (Triumph, 5/2) is a horse who prefers quicker ground, making his Cheltenham prospects more uncertain:
“Soft ground will favour Nicholson’s big picks,” Segal noted.
“If the conditions hold, punters could be in for a big week.”
The Panel’s Verdict: Are Nicholson’s Picks the Smart Bets?
The panel remains divided on Nicholson’s selections:
Kealy: “Kopek Des Bordes is too short — 11/10 is no value. I’d rather look elsewhere.”
Segal: “Shanagh Bob is an interesting bet — 8/1 feels about right for a race like the Martin Pipe.”
Jennings: “Home By The Lee at 6/1 is a fair price — he’s going in the right direction.”
Henderson: “Shanagh Bob has been trained for this — Friday’s race will suit him perfectly.”
Nicholson, however, remains confident.
“Punters are backing these horses for a reason,” he insisted.
“Kopek is solid, Shanagh Bob is progressive, and Home By The Lee is a grinder.”
Final Verdict: Will Nicholson’s Numbers Game Pay Off?
With Cheltenham known for market movements shaping the narrative, Nicholson’s picks are firmly in play:
- Kopek Des Bordes (11/10) – The Supreme Novices’ banker, according to market trends
- Shanagh Bob (8/1) – A festival sleeper for the Martin Pipe
- Home By The Lee (6/1) – A strong contender to upset Teahupoo in the Stayers’ Hurdle
“It’s a numbers game — follow the market, and you’ll find the winners,” Nicholson concluded.
Will his insider knowledge lead punters to Cheltenham riches, or will the festival chaos throw a curveball? The next four days will tell the story.