Mon Mome in 2009 sits in racing memory like a dare. A 100/1 Grand National winner, the sort of result that makes sensible people swear off prediction, then sneak back the next morning to check the replay again. Since then, the race has drifted toward something less cinematic, more arithmetic. The average winning price has hovered around 20/1, and the shock, when it arrives, tends to be a mid-range shock, not a lightning strike.
Powered by Tips.gg Data, the recent pattern looks stubborn: outsiders can win, yes, but the true 100/1 miracle has not been repeated. And the word “repeat” matters, because the National is not just about finding a wild winner once. It is about whether the race will let that kind of chaos happen again.
A Short History of the big Screamers, and What Followed
Foinavon in 1967 is the old reference point, the name people drop when they want to remind you the National can turn into slapstick. Then, for decades, nothing quite that extreme landed again. Mon Mome broke the long gap in 2009, and the sport briefly remembered what a proper longshot felt like.
But look at the modern Grand National winners list and the texture changes. Recent editions have still leaned to double-figure odds, yet the winners are not anonymous bolts from the blue, they are often horses with obvious credentials who were simply priced up because the race is brutal and the field is deep.
Two recent examples say plenty on their own:
2024: I Am Maximus won at 7/1, a favorite, carrying 11-06.
2025: Nick Rockett won at 33/1, carrying 11-08, with Willie Mullins training the first three home (Nick Rockett, I Am Maximus second, Grangeclare West third).
That 2025 result reads like a flex, not a fluke. A 33/1 winner is still an outsider in the public mind, but it is not the same species as 100/1. It is more like the market shrugging and admitting it cannot split a cluster of plausible contenders.
Why the Race Resists a Second 100/1 Fairytale
People love to talk about romance, then the handicapper arrives with a clipboard.
The National’s structure punishes winners quickly. Win it, and you do not get to come back as the same horse in the same conditions. Your weight goes up, your profile changes, your price collapses, and the whole “no one saw it coming” element evaporates. Nick Rockett, for instance, is already framed as a horse likely to shoulder something like 11-12 in 2026. That is not a detail you can wave away, it is the race.
There are other filters that quietly block the true no-hoper:
Age trends lean hard toward eight and nine year olds, with eight out of the last ten winners fitting that bracket.
Weights matter, and “ideally” you want 11-00 or less, even if recent winners have carried more.
Experience matters too, with the profile pointing toward horses with at least a few runs in the season, and form at three miles or beyond.
So what happens to the 100/1 type? Often it is a horse with either patchy form, limited evidence at the trip, or a rating that makes it look outclassed. To win once, it needs the perfect storm. To win again, it would need the perfect storm plus a handicap mark that somehow stays friendly, which is almost the opposite of how the sport is designed.
Even favorites do not have it easy. Only three of the last ten market leaders have won, and one of them was I Am Maximus in 2024. The National does not reward certainty, it rewards being the right kind of wrong.
2026: The Names at the Front, and the Ones That Could Spoil It
If you are asking “when is the Grand National 2026” or “when is Grand National 2026,” you are already thinking like a punter, calendar first, conviction second. The other obsession is grand national runners and odds, because the market tells you what the crowd fears.
As of March 2026, the ante-post picture is led by a familiar cluster:
Iroko (best odds quoted around 12/1 to 13/2) sits as the current favorite, described as having strong recent form. That is enough to pull money early. It is also enough to ensure there will be no hiding place on the day.
Stormed home!
Iroko gets back to winning ways, taking out the Howden Graduation Chase at @Ascot… 🟢🟡@JJONeillJnr @G_G_Racing pic.twitter.com/BT1fnvFyd9
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 20, 2025
I Am Maximus (7/1 to 11/1) is the obvious headline horse, the 2024 winner who came back and finished second in 2025. That sounds like a storybook, until you remember the weight problem never goes away. The public likes reliability, the National likes to punish it.
Grangeclare West (around 10/1) ran third in 2025 carrying 11-10. That single line tells you why repeating big performances here is such a grind. Even placing comes with a cost.
Nick Rockett (20/1 to 33/1) is the reigning champion, and also the cleanest example of why a 100/1 repeat is fantasy. A defending winner is not allowed to be a secret. Even if the price stays relatively chunky, the task is heavier, literally.
Johnnywho (around 16/1) is the mover, the kind that makes ante-post markets twitch. After winning the Ultima at Cheltenham in March 2026, his odds were slashed from 40/1 to 16/1. That is not “stable whispers,” that is the market reacting to evidence.
Then there is the Willie Mullins factor, sitting over all of this like weather. When one trainer can train the first three home in the same year, it changes how you read “outsider.” An outsider from that yard is not the same as an outsider from nowhere. It can still pay, but it does not feel like the universe laughing, it feels like you ignored the obvious.
Betting Angles That Fit the Modern Race, Not the Old Myths
If you are hunting the next Mon Mome, you are mostly hunting a feeling. I get it, it is the best feeling in betting, the one you talk about for years. I still think the smarter play is to accept what the recent grand national winners have been telling us.
Aim for the 14/1 to 33/1 band, the zone where “outsider” still exists but the horse is usually credible. The average winning price around 20/1 keeps dragging you back to that middle shelf. It is not glamorous, it is practical.
Each-way thinking suits the National’s chaos, because even the right horse can have the wrong trip. Also, do not over-trust favorites. Three wins in ten years is not dreadful, but it is not a license to pay short prices in a race built to embarrass certainty.
And if you want a simple checklist that matches the recent profile, keep it plain: eight or nine years old, some recent runs, proven stamina at three miles or more, and a weight that does not scream punishment.
So, Can an Outsider Repeat the 100/1 Miracle?
An outsider can win again, sure, and the last two runnings proved it in different ways. A true 100/1 repeat is another matter. The handicap system, the weight rise for winners, and the modern tendency toward mid-range prices all lean against it.
If the National gives us another jolt in 2026, I expect it to come from the middle of the market, not the far edge of it. That is where the race lives now, messy, mean, and still capable of making you stare at the result and laugh.